Sunday, August 31, 2008

This November Expect the Unexpected

The race for the White House is in full bloom. The Democrats have had their nomination and Barack Obama has chosen Joe Biden as his vice-president. The Republicans are about to have their nomination and John McCain has pulled his surprise move and nominated Sarah Palin. So who is going to win in November? Here is my prediction for the coming election; more so than any election in recent times, the polls, one way or another, are going to be off. There are too many x factors in this election, too many things no pollster can predict.

Let us start with Barack Obama. His chief strength is his popularity amongst blacks and young voters (ages 18-22), two groups that are notorious for not voting. Will Obama’s popularity bring them to out to vote or will they stay home like they usually do? Obama is the first black candidate nominated by a major party. How many Democratic voters are there out there who, in the privacy of the voting booth, will find themselves unable to turn the level for a black man? I believe that there are still real racists in this country and not all of them are Republicans.

As for John McCain. He is unpopular amongst both evangelicals and economic conservatives. How many of them, come Election Day, will stay home? There are many women out there upset about the fact that Hillary Rodham Clinton not getting the nomination. How many of them, in the privacy of the voting booth, will find themselves unable to vote against a female vice-president.

With the possible exception of evangelicals and McCain, these are all things that are by definition unpollable. How do you poll if someone will actually go and vote instead of just saying that they will? How do you poll what someone will do in the privacy of the voting booth as opposed to what they will say to a pollster? Who is going to win? I have no idea and neither does anyone else.

1 comment:

Miss S. said...

Well I found out that two of my co-workers were pro-Hillary and one of them is switching to McCain because she likes Sarah Palin. I am so done with this election! This first non-Bush election I will be participating in. I have never even heard of people making such cursory political choices as what is going on now. Refrains such as "he's old", "he's Black", "she has 5 kids", and "he's the anti-christ" should not be the some of the most talked about subjects when people are trying to decide who should be the next President.

Both sides are being very bad here. However the Republicans (not so much the party...but the populace) have been rubbing me the wrong way about this Bristol Palin issue. I do not feel that her pregnancy is a disqualifier for her mother to become VP. But it is a big deal from a moral standpoint; she gets a hoorah for not aborting the baby, but little reprimand for getting pregnant in the first place???? Now morals are being tied up with economics because when a poor teenager gets pregnant and needs welfare, the Republicans tend to want to shake their finger and cry about the transfer payments funded by their tax dollars. But if you are well off...go ahead, it's not a big deal.

My apologies; I am officially stepping off my political least until Nov. I think (bli neder).